15% bonus period:
Average (mean) purchase (and standard deviation or margin of error):
3.53165551876 (+/- 16.1878915742) BTC , 3477.75806287 (+/- 20966.1649591) ETH
Total number of transactions: 2670 BTC purchases , 284 ETH purchases
Total value: 9429.52023508 BTC , 987683.289854343324302095 ETH
10% bonus period:
5.70244987229 (+/- 44.2841315864) BTC , 574.5681616 (+/- 2220.66592877) ETH
Total number of transactions: 567 BTC purchases , 98 ETH purchases
Total value: 3233.28907759 BTC , 56307.6798367855209277 ETH
5% bonus period:
2.36504311093 (+/- 10.9087466941) BTC , 261.901177828 (+/- 536.201583122) ETH
Total number of transactions: 591 BTC purchases , 67 ETH purchases
Total value: 1397.74047856 BTC , 17547.3789145 ETH
0% bonus:Average purchase:
3.72000479087 (+/- 17.8964006403) BTC , 751.105744539 (+/- 2814.05506866) ETHTotal number of transactions: 1231 BTC purchases , 127 ETH purchases
Total value: 4579.32589756 BTC , 110278.0819101943 ETH
Late buys (to be refunded):Average purchase:
Total number of transactions: 41 BTC purchases (+/- ) BTC
The general formula to determine Reputation token holdings (factoring in early-bird discounts) is:
- to raise funds for completion and ongoing refinement of the software platform and associated operational, promotional and legal costs
- to determine empirically, based on preferences revealed by spending actions, the selection (essentially the self-selection) of referees, those who opted to buy a financial stake in the system
- to determine empirically the voting clout and percentage of all platform trading fee revenue each referee gets (the more an individual bought into the crowdsale, the greater the voting clout and revenue share they will have).
- Augur hedged against bitcoin volatility during the crowdsale, but not as soon (or as late) as we would've liked in retrospect. Amid significant uncertainty over bitcoin's price stability through late summer and with the urging of Ethereum's former #2 Charles Hoskinson and other members of the community, Augur hedged a significant portion of its holdings (13,500 BTC). Via itBit, Augur sold at an average of US$227 per BTC with $10/coin borrowing cost, netting the Project $217 per BTC. In light of the bounceback that occurred after that, it was not ideal timing but it reduced our downside risk — the US$ price of BTC, instead of recovering, could've easily continued falling. Our thinking was that it was better to lose a bit hedging than take the risk of losing a lot by not hedging. We wanted to guarantee Augur would have the minimum resources required to complete its mission no matter what happened to bitcoin's US$ price going forward.
Augur worked out a general plan for addressing referee-related scalability issues — specifically, we're focused on the possibility that if the platform turns out to be as successful as we aim for it to be, that the number of prediction markets requiring referees will grow significantly faster than the population of referees and their capacity to handle them all.
- As a supplement to this plan, Augur initiated an independent R&D initiative earlier this year codenamed ARGUS, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Natural Language Processing (NLP) / Machine Learning (ML) referee/reporter-assistant system. If successful, it could massively expand the scalability of the system by reducing the reporting burden on referees. In other words, it could massively increase the capacity of referees to report on vast amounts of predicted event outcomes. This could be critical as our ambition is for Augur to become the world's next big financial market platform and to host thousands of prediction markets with various topics - we need to make sure referees can managably report on all of those event outcomes.
blog post: http://www.augur.net/blog/i-robot-will-be-the-judge-the-case-for-artificial-intelligenc
Very preliminary demo: http://pasky.or.cz:5500/
- Augur is moving toward partnership with IBM Watson, the Artificial Intelligence division of IBM, on development of a closed-source alternative to our open-source Argus as a "referee helper/recommender" application.
- Four major banks — three from Luxembourg and one from Spain — have been actively considering participation in the Augur Project, either in the form of investment, collaboration or some other form of engagement. A number of banking officials, including officials with banks based in Switzerland, Luxembourg and Spain, have either suggested or explicitly told us they had personally bought into the Augur crowdsale on their own behalf.
- At least three Luxembourg-based investment funds or startup incubators have been considering investment in Augur non-profit base platform or a widely anticipated for-profit spinoff.
- We've begun initial work on SageNet, a media platform to identify, validate and monetize content from the world's "Hidden Sages." The system will build the world's first objectively and empirically validated meritocracy of the world's "true experts" across various topics and subtopics, as defined on an empirical 24/7/365 basis by systematic evaluation of real-time prediction market trading performance. Augur — through the open ledger that blockchain technology offers — will allow us to see, for the first time, who really knows their subject matter well enough to be able to anticipate future developments in their areas of expertise. We plan to build a media platform around that.
Blog post: http://www.augur.net/blog/find-the-hidden-sages
- The government of Luxembourg, through the Economic Ministry, has said it's open to supporting a for-profit spinoff of Augur in some as-yet-undefined capacity if it does not present any significant financial regulation issues.
- In a later meeting with a panel of officers of the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (http://www.cssf.lu), Luxembourg's financial regulatory authority, the CSSF determined that Augur is not under its jurisdiction and is therefore not subject to any financial regulation. This could have significant EU-wide implications to the extent that Luxembourg's regulatory determinations historically might have an implicit "passport" quality as far as their weight across the EU.
- Augur recently presented an overview of its platform at the European Commission arguing for the business and social benefits of prediction markets and explaining how they can be technically implemented as distributed decentralized applications.
- The demo of our alpha version works much more smoothly and quickly now with additional functionality including account registration.
- We've made our third-party API publicly available (along with a nice blueprint). Augur intends to be an open platform for many other people to build their own prediction market applications, thereby expanding the platform's reach and depth.
- Ethereum (http://ethereum.org), the cryptocurrency network for building automated financial applications and "smart (automated) contracts" that we're building on, went live this summer. In a matter of weeks it has amassed more than 300GH/s in hashpower, with nodes proliferating in Europe, the US and Asia. It is already ranked 4th in value among all cryptocurrencies, after Bitcoin, Ripple and Litecoin.
- Senior representatives from at least two major cryptocurrency exchanges have already approached Augur (on their own initiative) about their strong interest in listing REP tokens on their exchanges when we go live (currently projected to be around Q1 2016).
- Except for occasional downtime, we never really stop building Augur: our Github
- We're looking for scholarly review. We seek extensive, rigorous assessments of the platform incentive structure and other underlying assumptions. We'd like experts in economics and finance (particularly game theory and behavioral finance) as well as computer scientists and cryptologists to review our models and code. We are looking into the possibility of submitting the entire platform to a formal peer review process. Interested? Have suggestions? Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
- This is an update on ARGUS, our Artificial Intelligence, Natural Language Processing reporter-helper application R&D initiative being led by Petr Baudis: "Argus is currently in the early prototype stage, with the basic data management functionality, machine learning and general framework ready, and a very simple baseline that's right about 2/3 of time on our test set of questions. We also have a filter for questions that we are able to answer, which currently accepts about 1/3 of questions. We are now going to improve both of these numbers (especially the first one - when we do try to answer, we should be really reliable) - by adding more news sources besides The Guardian and New York Times, and by extending our evaluation engine with more advanced semantic methods."
- There will be more engagement with regulators and other government officials in the US, Europe and elsewhere.
- New features will be added to the codebase, including other types of prediction markets besides "yes/no" binary (including, but not limited to, scalar, categorical and combinatorial) and options to filter by topic and sort by volume.
- A budget will be prepared and there will be regular, perhaps quarterly, reporting of our financials to the general public.
- We plan to have a fully featured beta version of the platform out by the end of this year, maybe Christmas
- Again, we're projected release of the full live real-money version by Q1 2016, but that's a forecast that depends on what unexpected security holes third-party security audits, penetration testing and bug bounties uncover.
- REP token holdings would be released shortly before the platform goes live.
Analytical tools: https://github.com/AugurProject/token-sale/tree/master/stats
*for practical reasons, we use unique full names as proxies for BTC accounts and use unique ETH addresses as proxies for ETH accounts
**mean is the average transaction size, mode is the most frequently occurring transaction size and median would be the transaction in the dead center of the list if you listed all transactions from largest to smallest.